• UK regional forecasting service developed with needs of business in mind and used by increasing range of businesses including financial institutions, chartered surveyors, utilities, IT companies, telecommunications, retailers, management consultants, also by central and regional government

• annual forecasts for output and employment to the year 2010 across 30 sectors for the 11 standard planning regions, with the South East further divided into Greater London and the Rest of the South East, which are also at full disaggregation

• annual forecasts for investment to the year 2010 across 16 sectors including manufacturing, business services, government and dwellings, for the 11 standard planning regions plus Greater London and the Rest of the South East

• annual forecasts for consumers' expenditure to the year 2010 across four categories, including food,drink & tobacco and durables, for the 11 standard planning regions plus Greater London and the Rest of the South East

• optional forecasts to the year 2010 for the 66 English and Welsh counties and Scottish regions

• two full forecast reports in February and July including: summaries; regional macro-economic prospects; the position and prospects of each region to the year 2010; and comprehensive tables by region and sector

• commentary on each UK region written by local economists familiar with their regions; in 1996/97 these are as follows:

• integrated national-regional model, providing consistent forecasts for regions adding up to national results

• calculation of how changes in national variables such as exchange rates, interest rates and tax rates affect regions

• access to computerised databank of history and forecasts

• use of latest Regional Accounts and Employment data

• methodology and data fully explained; CE will discuss further if required; excellence and rigour of methodology special feature

• telephone support for users of the data and forecasts

• benefit of CE's ten years' experience of regional forecasting for business and government

• optional adaptation of forecasts to subscribers' own defined areas

• meetings to present forecasts, with guest speakers on current regional economic issues

• discounts on other CE services

This service combines a model-based approach for forecasting with the local knowledge of consultants based in the regions. The model comprehensively covers the 11 standard planning regions plus Greater London and the Rest of the South East. The standard regions are as follows:

The model provides annual projections to the year 2010 for output, employment, personal disposable income, consumers' expenditure, investment, unemployment, migration, population, housing starts and number of households. The level of industrial disaggregation for output and employment is currently set at 30 sectors:

Investment is forecast for 16 sectors and consumers' expenditure for 4 categories for the 11 standard planning regions plus the two subregions of the South East. The investment sectors are:

The consumers' expenditure categories are:

The integrated national-regional model produces consistent regional forecasts. The system is used as the basis of reports published in February and July each year. The need for a satisfactory national model is widely recognised.

... the most valuable early warning system is likely to be an econometric model which generates detailed and reliable long-term forecasts for any economy. Such models have a distinctly patchy reputation, but some have emerged with notable credit from the experiences of the last year or so. In particular, the Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the UK economy (MDM), developed by Cambridge Econometrics Limited, performed impressively in identifying and quantifying the slowdown in UK economic growth which occurred from late 1989.

(West Midlands Enterprise Board Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 1991, reprinted in Regional Studies Association Newsletter, August 1991)

The Reports

The regional forecast reports provide:

• macroeconomic and industrial prospects for the regions and the UK

• projections to the year 2010 for the 11 standard planning regions, plus Greater London and the Rest of the South East, for the following indicators:

• an economic profile of each region

• historical reference data

• analysis by county (in the February report)

• topical commentary on specific regional issues

The February report is based on the ONS's regional data published in December of the previous year and on CE's view of the national economy. The July report is based on CE's June national forecast and further releases of regional data from the ONS. This report also includes scenarios and special features. Previous topics have included: the effect of the Single European Market on the regions; the economic future of the South East; regional employment change in the UK service sector in the 1980s; economic prospects for the north of England; the outlook for regional housing markets with implications for economic activity; the regional impact of sterling's devaluation in September 1992; unemployment, house prices and the recession in 1990-92 with an intercounty comparison; the relationship between house prices and migration; spatial disparities in employment growth in Great Britain over the past decade; spatial disparities in the formation rate of new firms; prospects for high-technology industry; labour migration and regional disparities in competitiveness; commuting to workplaces; and foreign manufacturing in the UK regions. Special features in the February and July 1996 reports include: regional unemployment disparities in the UK - some comparisons with other member states of the EU; the effect of EU regeneration funding in local areas of the UK - the case of Merseyside; and spatial variations in small business development and employment generation in the UK.

The UK Regional Databank

Computerised access to a regional databank is available to subscribers. The databank contains selected tables from the reports, plus historical data and forecasts for output, employment, consumers' expenditure and other regional variables.

Regional Economic Prospects Presentation Software

This is a Windows application designed to make viewing of the forecast easy and user- friendly.

Special Regional Simulations

Subscribers can commission special regional projections, based on a particular CE national forecast or on the subscriber's own assumptions.

Subscribers' Own Area Definitions

Subscribers can also commission forecasts for areas defined to suit their needs.

For further information contact:

Katerina Homenidou, Manager of the UK Regional Service, Cambridge Econometrics

Covent Garden, Cambridge, CB1 2HS, United Kingdom

Tel: (+44) 01223 460760

Fax: (+44) 01223 464378

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